The following are my thoughts on what candidates need to do, and what they need to recognize, in order to be a successful campaigner today. I often see people use anecdotes on tactics that have worked or failed from periods of time that, while relatively recent, already don’t have much bearing on how we run an election in the modern era. We need to update, and to try to keep with the times. And why should you listen to me? You probably shouldn’t, I’m goddamn no one. But I’m trying anyway. So, without further ado:
-Just because you are right does not mean you will win. The marketplace of ideas is a lie - the best idea does not always win out. The loudest can, the one that’s the easiest can, the one that lets the majority stay comfortable while other people suffer can. Smart people who know they have a grasp on the issues and are offering reasonable, realistic and ethical solutions can easily lose because they are overconfident in the value of being right. Bad ideas, corrupt ideas, immoral and unethical ideas can all be implemented because they are pushed in smart, manipulative ways. Use those same tactics in pushing the good ideas, because they need it just as much as any other idea would.
-Always be more loved than hated. You can achieve this by not appearing on your opponent’s radar too much on purpose, or by being so loved by specific people that it’s very difficult to get the same level of attention from people who don’t like you. Clinton failed at this, Trump succeeded at it by being loved more than other people could hate him, Ben Shapiro and Rush Limbaugh succeed at this by sticking to their very specific audiences and not seeking to expand beyond them.
-Excite the sort of people who will post about you on social media. The American public is increasingly skeptical of advertisements, and often turn to their friends for recommendations. People enthusiastic about you posting on social media for their less political friends to see will give you more bang for your buck than any advertisement ever could. People who will post a lot on these topics are younger, more extreme than the general public, and already locked into their views. Trump did this with white men who felt forgotten, Obama did this with black and young people. Sanders, though not ultimately successful, got further than anyone thought he would through doing this with young economic liberals.
-You won’t get far trying to inject too many new ideas into the public dialogue - instead, find ideas that have a following elsewhere and bring them in to the conversation. Find ideas popular in niche circles but are not talked about much in mainstream politics. Then bring them up a few times and make the causes your own. You’ll have a built in base of support while looking like an ideas man. Examples: Trump supporting deporting Muslims, Sanders proposing medicare for all.
-The newer you are to the public political consciousness, the better your shot will be. This is very specifically in broad political consciousness. If you have been in politics forever but a relative unknown, you’re fine. If you have been in public consciousness forever, but in an apolitical way, you’re fine. If you’ve been around and known for a long time, you’ll maybe make it out of primaries, you should be fine as a legislative incumbent, but you will be hurt in national politics. The longer you are around, the more people have had the chance to set themselves firmly against you - and what’s more, these people will have biased their friends against you. Examples of people hurt by this: McCain, Romney, Clinton. Helped: Sanders, Trump.
-Make sure you stand FOR something, not just against. And I don’t mean just saying what you’re in favor of - I mean have a few issues that people know electing you is a step towards. This can be scary, because specifics can be attacked easier, but you’ll have a harder time corralling new support unless you give people something to get on board for. In 2016, Trump was able to have people say “build the wall,”“lock her up,” and “drain the swamp” on cue. Not complicated, easily repeatable, still descriptive. Hillary had “forward” and “I’m with her.” Not nearly descriptive enough, low chanting potential, and I had to think to remember them. Ask the layperson what Clinton’s first priorities in office would be, and most would come up empty handed. That’s not good.
-Accept that, unless you’re running for president, a lot of the people wandering into the voting booth will not have had the time to learn the ins and outs of your every position. If you have the choice between people agreeing with your position, and having a vague but positive impression, go with the impression. To that end, don’t go deep in getting your message out there, go wide.
-Cater to specific groups, not the general electorate. You will never please everyone. But does a large union have one issue they need solved that no one else cares about? Propose how to solve it, and they’ll vote for you based on that one issue. Find single issue voting groups that don’t have needs that conflict with your larger message, and turn them on to you. Farmers, gun advocates, LGBT groups, unions... and deeper! Any obscure organization with a specific issue plaguing them is a bunch of votes ripe for the picking.
-The middle ground is evaporating, and politicians as a class are particularly loathed. You are not going to win by being the candidate most willing to compromise, to reach across the aisle, to try new things. You are going to win by being the candidate most confident in their positions and surest of what must be done. You will look strong, and your strong stance will set you apart from the public’s mental image of a “typical” politician, no matter how flawed that mental image may be.
-Just because the middle ground is disappearing doesn’t mean there aren’t non-voters vote floating around to grab. Most people don’t vote in any election besides presidential, and even then only about 2/3rds of Americans voted. Do not assume the people not voting just want a moderate - they just don’t feel there’s a point, or they don’t feel they need anything. If they feel there’s no point but they care about an issue, try to help bring that issue into the political mainstream. Make them feel heard. If they don’t feel they need anything, find something bad in a lot of the electorates lives, and make them angry about it. Make them aware that they do not have to accept the bad deal they’ve been given, and you can help give them a better one.
-If you are running in a primary, be an incumbent and don’t tell anyone about the election. If you cannot be an incumbent, run against someone who isn’t an incumbent. If you must run in a primary against an incumbent, you will probably lose, but your best chance at winning lies in specific positions and making your name heard in community spaces, particularly online. The more grassroots, the better. Do everything you can to make sure people are aware it is election day, and better yet, make sure they know they heard about it from you. Low turnout favors the incumbent, and it’s hard to attack someone for encouraging people to vote. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez is a good example of how to do this right.
-Have your own speaking style, own it, and make it unique. George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Bernie Sanders all have this. McCain, Romney, and Hillary Clinton did not. You will get mocked for it. All that means is you’re recognizable.
-If you are being talked about more, if you are the center of attention, you are winning. Obama got a lot of media coverage, a lot of it bad, about whether he was experienced enough. Trump got wall to wall coverage with every tweet. McCain and Clinton became addenda to conversations about the other candidate, and they lost.
-The emotion that most leads people to vote is anger. Not hope, not optimism, not any sense of patriotism. Anger. People may think they’re voting on a more noble feeling, but chances are they aren’t. This was touched on earlier, but make sure you’re directing the anger at a noble cause, and rile people up. Show them the problem, make sure they know it sucks, show them how your opponent contributes to it, tell them how you’ll solve it.
-Use timing to your advantage. If you’re interested in winning above all else (and really you shouldn’t be, but moving on), don’t try to run when someone you agree with is the president. People who don’t control the presidency are angry, and as stated above, it’s easiest to get angry people to vote.
-You will have to be harsh and negative at times. This is natural and to be expected. Always limit how harsh you are to only what is necessary. An election is a popularity contest, so unnecessary enemies will hurt you. What’s more, if you can avoid being vindictive, people will be grateful to you, and may have the chance to repay you later. Lincoln is an excellent example of this. Trump won the campaign in spite of this, but is having a hard time governing because of it.
-Most people care so much more about themselves than anyone else that appealing to empathy is almost useless. However, this can be circumvented if you get people to accept they are on the same team. This is a large part of what holds Wall Street and evangelicals together under republicans, and different minority groups and college educated white people under democrats.
-No conventional wisdom is absolute. Wisdom is learned, a status quo is established, new wisdom is learned and the status quo is broken again. It was conventional wisdom that a black man would hurt the chances of winning, until it wasn’t. It was conventional wisdom that you had to act stately, until it wasn’t. Right now, examples of conventional wisdom are young people don’t vote, black people vote democratic, and socialists can’t win in the Midwest. All of those are capable of changing, and are not immutable laws of the universe. Similarly, everything I’ve said here may have been wrong in the past and may again become wrong in the future. I am not writing this as a guide for five years from now, I’m not writing this based on how things were five years ago. This is just for now.
